What If We Leave?

" The boy does his homework, too bad his War Party relatives don't."

HATING HILLARY IS NOT ENOUGH!

GROW UP BUSHEVIKS!
THE WAR PARTY IS KILLING THE EMPIRE.

John Mueller is professor of political science at Ohio State University.

His most recent book is "Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them."

He wrote a fascinating account for the American Conservative magazine a couple months ago excerpted below:

After the American venture in Iraq is over, freelancing jihadists who trained there may seek to continue their operations elsewhere, like the jihadists who fought alongside the mujahideen against the Soviets in Afghanistan. If those experiences are any indication, however, the impact of these adventurers may not prove terribly significant. Following the example of their predecessors in Algeria, Chechnya, and Bosnia, they will most likely end up offering marginal reinforcement to rebel forces in places like Kashmir, Somalia, and Afghanistan. They might also try making trouble in their home countries, like Saudi Arabia, if they can manage to get back.

Whatever happens with the freelancers, the civil war in Iraq may become worse after the United States withdraws. But the ranks of the anti-American insurgency will be significantly reduced because those committed to forcing out the occupiers will presumably stop engaging in violence when their main target leaves the scene. As in Afghanistan after the Soviets left, a warlord-dominated and partially criminalized civil conflict could persist, though it will more likely resemble the somewhat less horrible, if exceedingly complicated, factionalized civil war in Lebanon.

In time, the Iraqis, like the Lebanese before them, will have to sort this out—perhaps with the aid of some of their neighbors. The U.S. invasion almost instantly made Iraq a failed state, and only the exhausted locals can patch it back together, as many civil wars in Africa and Asia have demonstrated over the last decade. An eventual agreement among combatants is possible in all this, as is a military coup and the return of strong-man rule—particularly if the elected government is seen as incompetent. The notion, however, that a resentful new government in Iraq will cut off oil production to spite the U.S. makes little sense, as that would further impoverish the country and destabilize the regime. [End excerpt.]

PISS AND VINEGAR AT THE WORLD'S OIL AUCTION BARN.

by Pete Kassius, One Hoss Boss, Blue Barn News HQ

Okay, here's where the subject should be kicked into high gear. The adage "oil floats on the water" comes to mind from a lecture I listened to on the net the other night. Oil can be sold to anybody offering an amenable price. How many pipelines do you know about that pump oil across the Pacific or Atlantic oceans? Oil countries in the "developing" world will determine who get it, unless they allow U. S. control, which is waning with overwhelming worldwide demand. The mood is screw the Americans. The "other" markets are proving more viable and internally the same oil producing countries face rising demands; China, India and for that matter, Europe and Asia, all are very viable markets. One doesn't need fleets of tankers to supply 40% of their energy needs, like here. The Buyers Bleachers at the Oil Auction Barn are full, sagging and ready to get nasty at the slim pickings in the pit. American jingoists and their Know Nothing supporters in Kansas do not understand that foreign policy disasters lead to financial "disruptions" called one monster hog of an Energy Depression. American arrogance will not sustain our "oil addiction" and military might can only further bankrupt and bleed the empire. Staying in Iraq. even for the next four months after this last round of congressional funding expires, increases the risk of pulling the hair triggers assembled on Iran, Lebanon and, well, name a spot in that area and you can figure it out. The "ethanol effect" as described in a recent Pakistan newspaper article by Noam Chomsky, where the Mexican poor staged massive protests against a 50% price hike in corn tortillas may eventually help mortgaged Kansas corn farmers and their arrogant partners in the motoring suburbs understand what's ahead. Quite simply by not working fast enough before feeling a similar Big Squeeze like their neighbors to the south are already in the streets about.

So what could happen if we leave Iraq? We might save enough money to salvage the country before it collapses 'neath a mountain of bankruptcies and military dictatorships.

Read the complete article by Dr. Mueller on the American Conservative web site at: What If We Leave?